It’s interesting to note that many are talking about Silver and how it is losing it’s appeal as a monetary investment. Being the little brother of Gold for centuries I find it hard to believe the stackers around the world are about to toss their Silver out the window. Sure Gold rules but there is always a place in the world for those Eagle and Maple coins. Besides the Silver Coin fans of the world in which there are millions this shiny little brother might be coming into it’s own for a different reason.
The rise of the electric vehicles is about to explode onto the markets of the worlds. Guess what these millions of new cars, trucks and of course the bikes are going to need. You guessed it! Silver. So silver just could be the metal of the future. The demand for commodities just could ease off in the coming years as the Global economies are still struggling. Much of the Silver of the world is a by product of these commodities and it makes sense there is going to be less of it to go around.
Also it takes many, many years for a new Silver mine to bring into production. One thing is clear, when the electric vehicle demand around the world shifts into second gear Silver is going to be needed.
Silver Coin Shortage
Monetary silver coins are about to become more difficult to find. As huge corporations emerge in the new economy and compete to build the much sought after little brother of Gold to power their cars the coins will shine. More and more silver will be shifted to the industrial side of this metal. Mining stocks could become more valuable in this sector and of course the coins. You will find Eagles, Maples, Rounds and everything else made out of pure Silver a harder and harder product to find.
With the electric world about to explode onto the scene because of climate change the older ways much like the industrial revolution could be at hand. When entering a new Para gram many things change and it is worth getting in front of these changes. Let’s face it the world is awash in debt. Two choices are available to the world. No 1 is to print there way out of it and No 2 is to let the whole thing crash into deflation. Either way people from around the world are going to be looking at ways to protect their money.
The new age which we are about to begin is going to need a whole lot of silver to power it along. New demand with cause companies around the globe to be stockpiling their silver supplies before prices get to high. What this is going to created is a shortage of the favorite coins of collectors such as Maples, Eagles, Rounds just to name a few. These particular pure coins are indeed going to be very hard to find at a low price.
Future of the Silver Coin
It is a good supposition to realize that coins are going to separate their worth from spot prices. Obviously it is going to cost a lot more money to collect and create coins that are pure silver. This is going to make these coins a rare art form sought after by collectors. Already coins that are pure silver are highly sought after around the world and hold a high premium above the spot price. This trend is only going to grow.
Quicksilver offers a great place to collect coins at low cost to build up your collection over time. They offer an auto pilot program you can join and every month coins will be sent right to your home. Great way for a hands free method of obtaining coins and building your future in a sustainable way.
Silver forecast long term is bright and shiny
SWAG: “scientific wild-assed guess”
The pink curve in this monthly chart of Silver is not based on any math or analysis – I just added the curve drawing tool to the chart and started moving it around
To keep the curve from going parabolic (straight up) before 2030, I pushed $50 and $70 further into the future than I actually expect those Silver price targets to be reached
Silver price projections next 10 years
There are several ways of predicting Silver prices:
- parabolic movement
- Fibonacci trend extension
- ratio of one asset’s price to another asset’s price (i.e., the Silver-to-Gold ratio, or SGR)
- Elliott Waves
- price gain as a percentage
In this short article we’ll look at the parabolic curve shown in the chart in order to make Silver price projections for the next 10 years
Let’s start by making some major assumptions that could be entirely wrong (how’s that for a caveat?)
We’ll list those assumptions so we can refer to them in the future
- Gold is in a secular bull market
- Every bull market has three distinct phases
- The third phase of a bull is characterized by euphoria/mania – prices tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of bulls
- The third phase of Gold’s secular bull market has yet to occur
- Silver prices are loosely correlated to Gold prices – higher prices for the yellow metal means higher prices for Silver
If we accept those assumptions as our operating premise we can then develop a trading and Investment strategy for Silver appropriate for our theory
And let’s agree that having any theory is better than no theory – if we are wrong, we can step-back and adjust – if we are right, we make money
Without having some framework to use when we approach the Financial markets, we are really just hoping for the best with no actual strategy to apply
Richard Russell – Dow Theory Letters
I learned a great deal from the late Richard Russell and his Dow Theory Newsletters
Richard talked about Gold’s secular bull market quite a bit and he emphasized the same points I made above as assumptions
Specifically, that Gold was in a secular (as opposed to cyclical) Bull Market and that ALL Bull Markets have three distinct phases
Additionally, that prices in the third phase of a Bull Market tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls
And finally, that the third phase of the bull Market had yet to occur
Richard stated that final point over-and-over – it was very clear to him that the most exciting phase of the Bull’s run had yet to occur, and he wanted his subscribers to benefit
Richard passed in November of 2015 so he won’t get to witness a potentially epic rise in Precious metals prices in coming years
Those of us who followed Richard and considered him a mentor have an opportunity to benefit from his wisdom by participating in the Precious metals bull market
Rest in peace, Richard – and thank you!
Silver bull Market strategy
OK, so now we have a context to operate from: Silver is in a secular bull market and its third, and potentially most profitable phase has yet to occur
As traders and Investors we want to identify when that third phase starts so we can participate in the silver bull Market
We also want to have long-term Silver price forecasts so we know when it is time to take profits
Using the parabolic curve in the chart, we get these targets for the price of Silver:
| Date | Silver price forecast long term (USD) |
|---|---|
| May 2023 | $50 |
| May 2024 | $70 |
| May 2025 | $120 |
| May 2026 | $230 |
| May 2027 | $480 |
| May 2028 | $1350 |
$1350 for an ounce of Silver!
You must be crazy!
Now a $480 or $1350 long-term price forecast for an ounce of Silver seems ridiculous – trust me, I recognize that fact
Remember, however, Richard Russell’s guidance: in the third phase of a bull market, prices tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls
I consider myself to be one of those staunch Bulls and my long-term forecast for Silver is $600 per ounce
For me to be surprised, as Richard suggests, the price of Silver will have to go a lot higher than $600
Duration of Secular Trends in Financial Markets
There is no hard-and-fast rule for defining a secular trend – if you look for a specific number you’ll find anything from 5 to 30 years
Let’s think about how Richard used the term, since his definition is most relevant for our current exercise in making price forecasts for Silver in the year 2030
Richard watched and analyzed the financial markets on a daily basis for over 50 years and he saw numerous bull markets play out in that time
When he says that the Bull always runs in three distinct phases, I’m going to believe him – he certainly knows better than I, based on his experience
Let’s list some facts as bullet-points and then we can tie them together:
- Richard believed the Precious metals bull Market would occur in three phases
- He witnessed the first phase of the Bull from 2001 to 2011 and made sure his subscribers benefited
- After 2011, Richard continued to write about the three-phase bull market in Precious metals and how the third phase was yet to come – he was adamant on this point
So Richard watched a 10 year bull Market and continued to talk about a three-phase movement that was currently unfolding
Clearly, in his mind, the duration of a “secular trend” was measured in decades
At this point, we can add to our operating theory that the third-phase of the Precious metals bull Market will last at least ten years since phase-one (2001-2011) lasted ten years and Richard was expecting a multi-phase movement
